SellAustinTexas

Still thinking that house prices are going to decline further? Are you still anticipating the “deal of a lifetime” just around the corner? You’re about to be out of luck. It’s natural to look at the national economic news and think that we are going to see a further erosion in home prices but it looks like things are pointing up for Austin’s economy. We have seen a decline in high-end home prices but the average home price in Austin has remained relatively stable. The $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit is also about to run out (see the previous post). But by far the biggest reason: Interest rates are anticipated to go up and that is going to price a lot of people out of the market. Compared to the week prior to August 24, 2009, the national 30-year mortgage rate is up 4 basis points from 5.14%. Compared to three months ago, the 30-year rate is up 20 basis points from its average rate of 4.98%. Why are interest rates going up? The massive government spending has the potential to lead to long term inflation, causing interest rates to rise. Ted Jones, Senior VP and Chief Economist at Stewart Title explains it best:

“…let’s assume a loan amount today of $100,000 with a 30-year fixed-rate residential loan at 5 percent. Nationwide at the time of this writing, the average 30-year rate was 4.85 percent per Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae forecasts an average rate in all of 2009 of 5.13 percent. So the 5 percent is a reasonable assumption.

So if rates go up just 1 percent to 6 percent per year, then prices must drop at least 10 percent for that same buyer to qualify for the same monthly payment. A 1.5 percent increase in rates to 6.5 percent requires a 15 percent price decline, and a 2 percent increase necessitates a 20 percent price decline to qualify. Note: This 1 percent interest rate change to a 10 percent price change is only true when interest rates are 5 percent as they are today.”

Interest rates vs. price changes

Admittedly, at the same loan-to-value ratio, as prices decline so does the down payment. Since, however, many buyers select the price range of homes they consider buying based on their monthly payment potential, rising rates may force future buyers into less expensive homes and hence properties they find less desirable.

So, if you are waiting to buy your first home or if you are waiting to make that second home investment – don’t wait much longer! Postponing that purchase is going to price you out of the market and you are going to have to settle for something less or just wait for the next recession. Don’t get burned. Thanks to Ted Jones for letting us reprint part of his blog which can be found here.